Breaking News: Google Trends May Predict Global Chicken Pox OutBreaks

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By Wayne Parker , Parent Herald Jun 01, 06:23 am

Scots researchers claimed that chicken pox outbreaks can now be predicted by means of analyzing internet searches worldwide. With experts from Glasgow and Aberdeen universities, the team amazingly demonstrated how Google trends data can be used in forecasting whenever certain regions of the world experience a chicken pox epidemic.

Childhood diseases like measles and chicken pox, which are vaccine preventable, are becoming more and more prevalent across the globe according to a report from Press and Journal. Nevertheless, disease incidence often remains unknown because of underreporting.

Google data trends are mainly effective in nations that lack reporting of disease incidence according to a study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The said study demonstrated how Google searches for chicken pox showed seasonal cycles, tracking the yearly occurrence of chicken pox among children as cited on Herald Scotland. Using the data acquired from the 36 nations, the team discovered that chicken pox epidemics occur at different times of year in the Southern versus Northern hemispheres.

With higher chicken pox Google query rates in their spring season (from August to December), Southern hemisphere countries had a six-month shift; while northern hemisphere countries had epidemics that peaked in the spring (from February to June).

Moreover, the team significantly found out that in countries like the US where chicken pox vaccination is mandated, the seasonal epidemics of chicken pox have been eventually lost.

This indicates that the vaccination program is relatively effective at keeping pox infections at bay. On the other hand, states that lack vaccination had seasonal "epidemics" in chicken pox Google queries.

The researchers confirmed, with the use of the data from the countries having clinical chicken pox cases, that Google query behavior reflected accurately the distribution of varicella zoster, which is the virus that causes chicken pox.

Dr. Tyler Stevenson of Aberdeen University believed that the study offers a new and powerful method in examining the worldwide seasonality of chicken pox, and presents preliminary evidence of similar for some other childhood infectious diseases. "What we have identified here are clear seasonal cycles in illnesses that can cause significant morbidity to children. We still have a relatively poor understanding of the environmental and internal mechanisms that influence seasonal disease dynamics. Clearly vaccinations are effective," Dr Tyler Stevenson said in a statement.