In Skies of Ash and Smoke—Icelandic Earthquakes May Once Again Ground Flights

A land known for its explosive volcanic surface, Iceland has caused its fair share of international issues courtesy of eruptive natural disasters. In May of 2010, when a column of ash was launched into the sky above Iceland's Eyjafjallajokul volcano, 107,000 flights were grounded over an eight-day period, causing international disasters for more than 10 million passengers stranded away from home. Nearly four years later, Iceland faces an eerily similar emergency as the national government raised its aviation alert level for the risk of possible volcanic eruption to orange, the second-highest level on the most severe side of the scale.

The news of the change in the alert came after Iceland's Meteorological Office reported that roughly 3,000 small earthquakes have taken place since last Saturday, Aug. 16, near the subglacial stratovolcano Bardarbunga-with record-breaking seismic activity not seen since 1996.

"Presently there are no signs of eruption, but it cannot be excluded that the current ctivity will result in an explosive subglacial eruption, leading to an outburst flood and ash emission" the Icelandic Meteorological Office says.

Independent seismologists within the nation have confirmed that aviation in the area should be proceeded with caution, as lava beneath the surface is flowing with the recent seismic events.

Although the aviation industry has now put safeguards in place, and developed better monitoring techniques since the 2010 explosion which include the threat level scale currently being used, UK air traffic control service NATS predicts that similar weather conditions and ash density could once again lead to thousands of cancelled flights, putting a hold or an extension on some British vacations. NATS confirmed that strong northerly winds currently prevailing throughout the UK would mean that ash would arrive in UK airspace within 12-18 hours after an eruption, grounding many international flights.

However, in spite of the fact that the Eyjafjallajokull eruption cost the European aviation industry in excess of $1.66 billion, airlines continue to urge vacationers to go about their plans as usual, as they expect that situations have improved since the last major Icelandic eruption.

"The aviation industry is much better prepared than it was in 2010, but my suspicion is that if we have a similar density of ash cloud to 2010 with similar weather conditions, there would be a significant degree of disruption" independent aviation safety consultant, Jo Gillespie says. "There would be a delay between the eruption and the gathering of enough data to decide where it is safe to fly."

"Having said that, the chances of a repeat of the exact conditions we saw in 2010, are very small, so I would be planning my holiday as normal if I was about to travel."