School districts across the United States are approving the closure of dozens of schools in 2026, as years of declining enrollment, driven largely by a falling national birthrate, force officials to make difficult budget cuts.
In the first months of this year, several major districts have moved forward with closure plans. The Houston Independent School District unanimously voted on February 26 to shut down 12 schools, citing declining enrollment and aging facilities requiring an estimated $250 million in repairs.
Judson Independent School District in Texas approved the closure of four schools on February 9 while facing a $37 million budget shortfall, according to The Guardian.
Florida's Broward County Public Schools, the nation's sixth-largest district, approved the consolidation of six schools in January after enrollment fell nearly 17% over the past decade, costing the district almost $342 million in funding.
Portland Public Schools became the latest district to announce potential closures, with Superintendent Dr. Kimberlee Armstrong warning on March 10 that five to 10 of its 74 schools could close by the 2027-28 school year. The Oregon district has seen enrollment drop 12% since 2018, from 48,708 students to 42,622.
The driving force behind these closures is a birthrate that continues to fall. The U.S. fertility rate dropped to an all-time low of 1.599 children per woman in 2024, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That figure is well below the 2.1 replacement level and has been declining steadily since 2007.
The National Center for Education Statistics projects that K-12 enrollment will fall from roughly 49 million to about 47 million students by 2031, The Hill reported.
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A Brookings Institution study from August 2025 estimated that public schools could lose between 2.9 million and 8.5 million students by 2050, depending on whether families continue choosing alternatives like private schools and homeschooling at post-pandemic rates.
Other districts that recently approved closures include Cleveland Metropolitan, which is closing 29 schools after enrollment fell roughly 50% over two decades, and Atlanta Public Schools, which voted in December 2025 to close or repurpose 16 buildings.
Austin Independent School District approved the closure of 10 schools in November 2025 after losing 10,000 students in the past decade.
Experts say the financial pressure is clear. Schools carry high fixed costs, including building maintenance, that do not shrink when student numbers do. Most state and federal funding is tied to per-pupil counts, so fewer students means less money.
"One of the things we have to remember is schools have large, fixed costs: They have buildings that have to be maintained, and when the number of students falls, those costs don't go away," economist Nathan Grawe told EdSurge.
Some education leaders have proposed expanding publicly funded pre-kindergarten as one way to stabilize enrollment. But with birthrates expected to remain low, many districts are bracing for a future with fewer schools for years to come.
