Baby Bust, Not Baby Boom, After the COVID-19 Crisis [Experts Say]

Experts say that instead of a baby boom, a lasting baby bust is likely to happen due to the COVID-19 crisis.

According to a Brookings study, experts expect around 300,000 to 500,000 lesser births next year. 

The researchers based the study on data from the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009, and the Spanish Flu. These data are about fertility behavior concerning economics.

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What could cause the baby bust after the COVID-19 crisis?

When governments around the world implemented the quarantines amid the COVID-19 crisis, there was a clamor about a possible baby boom. The public thought that because couples are spending more time at home, there will be a spike of births in the next nine months.

However, this is not the case that experts argue today. They most certainly believe that there will be a baby bust instead.

An article from The Washington Post says that three factors could drive the decline in the birth rate in the U.S. Those are fear of the unknown, economic instability, and shuttered fertility services.

Kearney and Levine emphasized that because having a child also entails costs, parents tend to make choices anchored on their economic stability. In their study published in Brookings, the two economists reiterated, "In the analytical terms of economic modeling, adults 'choose' the quantity of children that maximizes their lifetime well-being subject to the costs linked with childbearing."

The COVID-19 crisis severely damaged the economy. Economists say that the recession is foreseen to last in the next months. Since the slump in the economy also brought many workers to unemployment, this is seen to affect their earnings in the long run. If this is the case, there could be a leaning for parents to choose not to have a child. That could be a decision that they will make for the meantime or even in the long run.

Granting that the Spanish Flu brought a drop on the birth rates, research also suggests that the COVID-19 crisis can have a more notable impact, mainly because it has hit the economy.

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Other studies also show that events that cause high mortality cause a reduction in birth in the next nine months. These events include famines, heatwaves, and diseases.

Previous Studies Showing Baby Bust

In 2007, during the Great Recession, the birth rate was 69.1 per one thousand women. Five years after that, there were fewer listed births. The baby bust dropped from 69.1 to 63.0 per one thousand women. This decrease is equivalent to 400,000 fewer births.

The analysis of economists Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine on the birth rates and the economic recession was that women are going to have fewer babies in the short term. Kearney and Levine also predicted that this will affect women's outlook and that there will be a lower total number of children.

In 1918, global influenza also caused a drop in the U.S. birth rates. Following the peak of deaths, birth rates dropped by ten percent.

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